Tuesday, January 14, 2020

7 oops 7?

This blog (August 2007) and its sister (truth engineering - July 2007) started thirteen years ago. Why? Well, we'll get into more detail, but Boeing had a potemkin rollout in July of 2007. It was on the 8th day of July. With hoopla. National news.

And? Talking that they would fly soon. And, they could snap together sections. And, a lot more. But, the fuselage shown was mostly empty. Yes, indeed. We can go into the details as this was a major stumble. Mostly, we pointed to the fact that the marketing mind (say, Scott Carson) was not grounded in reality. Well, Boeing got this thing done. They went back to having an engineering focus.

The same thing needs to be done with the 737 Max and all of Boeing's work.

Why the name? Well, I knew early on that this was sham. Spirit, in Wichita, shipped an incomplete (severely so) section. There was not snap on. In fact, if you look at the reports, there were huge mismatches between sections.

What is a section? These are mostly used in a standard manner. From the nose back, you have the cabin, mid-way there is the wing section, and at the end is the tail. There are others depending upon the size of the plane. The idea was to have a section stuffed by a contractor. These would then be joined. Within three days was the goal.

There is a lot more, but why the name? Well I was walking and talking with my spouse about this idiocy. Even in Wichita, there was a huge deal with the shipment. She is the one who said this: "7 oops 7." I ran with that. Now, if you look at the blog's flow, you'll see that I followed the ins and outs. At some point, though, the engineers came through. I said, I'm out of here.

Now, I'm back. Due to the state of the computing reality. It's a shambles.

Not long after I started, guess what? The finance people were running amok, per usual. And, rumbles were surfing. Ah, that's down my alley. Except this. I felt like Rip van Wrinkle. How did I miss this stupidity?

I was focusing on engineering and the truth aspects. It's interesting that the main player in the mess was financial engineering (thanks, MIT - engineering school).

But, I got into the thing fast. And, Ben? Ah. Eventually, I started FEDaerated to have more of the proper focus. Yes, that started two years later (August 2009). With these three, 7'oop7, truth engineering, and FEDaerated, I could cover the basis that apply technically.

You see, these issues are mostly technical in a real broad sense. At times, they even overlap medicine's problems with their drug pushing ways. But, hey, who's perfect?

In any case, the computer has made things topsy-turvy, everywhere. So, oops will be the norm. Why? There are limits that need discussion.

BTW, we're in a financial mess, again, too. This I discussed over the past decade. So, again, I'm back.

Remarks: Modified: 01/14/2020

01/14/2020 --

Friday, January 3, 2020

Summary, 2019

This year, we had the 737 Max in the spotlight. So many themes relate to that. We'll be back.

List of 2019 posts.

Remarks: Modified: 01/03/2020

01/03/2020 --

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Cracks with meaning

There have been only a few posts here the past few years. Of late, reports in the news almost motivated a post or two (say, about the cracks, a few weeks ago). But, not, for various reasons. Next year, perhaps. We shall see.

Today, The Atlantic put out an article that I could agree with. "How Boeing lost its bearings" is a look at how an anti-engineering culture developed. Say, like Carson who blabbed more than he understood.

Oh yes, that Indian subcontractor. Heard from them after I retired. Didn't take the lure.

Remarks: Modified: 11/21/2019

11/21/2019 --

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Test by tragedy

Have we come to that? Testing with people at risk. I am not kidding. I have been noticing declining quality for the past decade and one half. Some of this is due to computing. A lot of it is greed. Some of it is just immaturity augmented by SciFi's hold on the imagination. Lots to discuss.

The other day, I saw, in the biological context, some argument that sensor and simulation were equivalent. So, why spend the money for the former? Got that? No, just play the thing on a computer and use it as truth. That, people, is not a good sign. But, biology is loose. Don't believe me? Consider the strictness of trying to meet nature's hold on its material that is not from a life form.

Well, there are several reasons that people have let their love of abstraction go awry, one of which deals with metrics and what is measured. But, no abstraction, however much it might be enhanced by computing, approaches the 'beingness' of whatever that model might be trying to represent. SciFi has really warped things, too much. And, AI to the rescue? Not in the senses that I perceive to be thought of as a promise by some worldviews.

I know glossing over a whole lot of issues; however, we have gone too far in several directions leaving the natural result of befuddlement which comes from confounding without limit.

So, we'll just list a few particulars.
  • Recently, read where Boeing had not left the test pilots in the loop. Ah, human in the loop is a key issue (see discussions on truth engineering). 
  • We started by looking at engineering and the complexity brought by computing. There was sufficient reason for this due to the marketing thrust that was driving things. At some point, an engineer was put in charge; things quieted since laconic is not a bad trait for an engineer; and the thing flew (what? yes, the 787). 
  • Since the 777 started this trend and was quite good at it, there have been choices made that have not had a good effect. Some of those were reversed. Many were not. Again, just recently, I was noting that suppliers were complaining that they could not keep up the pace being set by the Company and its computers (run by people without proper acumen, it seems). Ah so, I thought. Then, the first of the tragedies. 
  • After that, there was a focus on software correcting what might be a design issue. What? But, then, given the complexity of the approach, who is to know? Well, that was the role, formerly, of experts who spent years honing their decision making talents. People in the loop is a notion to be discussed. Why this is so is obvious from the proper viewpoint. 
  • In this blog, we were gone, we said. Several times, with a brief look to see that the engineers were doing their marvels. You see, business and finance had a major failing. Idiots. That whole issue is still pending another take down by the world of nature. Never learn.
  • Hence, we started the Fedaerated blog. Of late, we have been on Quora (the motivation for this post). 
Technology in and of itself is a blind alley. When will we learn this?

Remarks: Modified: 05/09/2019

05/09/2019 --

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Modern ways

Progress seems to go with complexity. Too, costs rise. Yet, people make oodles of money. Some, that is. The majority pick up the lean remains. So goes the economy under the ca-pital-sino which is abetted with computational assists.

We started this blog looking at engineering and its output which are products. That was a long while ago, namely 31 August 2007. That first month had only two posts. The other one was a 'seed' post with a list of topics. We will not go into the motivation, but an event that occurred on 07/08/07, with wide press coverage, was of precipitating influence. The tone of the blog dealt with the reality behind engineering and with the importance of that view, say, versus marketing.

Guess what happened? The engineers took over so the problems were righted in the one arena. On the other hand, Silicon Valley began to take a marketing focus. As in? Zuck's later testimony, smirking, to Congress where he said, we sell ads. I about puked, quite frankly. An enabler was Jobs' showing the world the possibilities of a mobile platform. From that, we got to where zombies went around with their noses tethered. To what? One ought to ask. We see more discussion now. In fact, we see less of those with a hand held high as if signaling some virtue by the mere fact of having the thing.

Myself? Have none (as in, nada). Never took a selfie. Claim myself to be 1G/2G and impervious to whatever is the addiction that afflicts computing. In fact, still looking to bring truth engineering to the table.

Incidentally, it was in 2007 that the financial industry looked to be more errant than was that of the industry of the original focus. Yes, we all suffered. This from December of 2007: Tranche or not. Remember, this was early. Cracks were being seen. I first noticed after I started to pay attention after retiring in 2005. By 2007, it was obviously going to be more than Ben knew. Lots happened there.

Oh yes, a saying was around and about in the early 2000. With regard to a particular program, it was this: this is not your father's plane. Today, President Trump grounded a fleet. Again, it's modern. What went wrong? I have heard lots of discussions. But, one thing has been on my mind the past decade and one-half, constantly. And, due to the appearances of everything being right, and we know that they are not, I never really took a deeper look. Ought I?

A billionaire is noted to be exploitative in this sense. Vendors are pushed to cut. They are expected to eat costs. This is so the higher-order capitalists (we'll describe those cats) can get a larger payout. There have been so many cases of this, some I have mentioned - leveraged buyouts, for example. Some of these cases were seen up close.

There was scuttlebutt of late (few months duration) that some vendors were saying, we cannot perform at that rate. In one ear and out the other, while observing one contractor just gleefully celebrating their good fortune. Yet, they complained, too. And, bragged on how they could ramp up.

Facebook has been down today. That outage might twist the drawers of the advertisers. In the context of this blog's original focus? Very dire, the consequences. Hence, Trump's grounding.

Computing is a mess due to factors that we can identify and discuss. This thing will be resolved, too, as engineers do that sort of thing. But, the underlying issue? Yes, we just might look further, in our own time. This is merely a milestone being put out there as a marker for future reference.

Remarks: Modified: 03/13/2019

03/13/2019 --

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Summary, 2018

This is our first post of 2018. We had only 5 posts in 2017. We did not do a summary last year, for several reasons. So, we are doing it early.
Top 5 posts, Most Read
The post popular over the past 30 days deals with Facebook. The original post was in 2010. Then, in 2015, the experience of a friend got me to look at it, again. With the 2016 and beyond, revelations still coming, who knows. Will have to look at this in the next few months.

Prior years: 20112012201320142015, 2016

See "4th December" in 2010 and "Last post for 2008." 

Remarks: Modified: 12/25/2018

12/25/2018 --

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

The lure of trash

Or tranche. The 'oops' is still there. Too, ETFs now are a huge complicating factor. Everyone has seen them only on the upside where they provide a multiplying effect. On the down side, look for squashing to be huge.

This Quora question applies to the theme: Is-Wall-Street-working-on-a-way-to-bundle-student-debt-currently-at-1-5-trillion-dollars-into-tranches-to-sell-to-private-investors-all-over-the-world-like-they-did-with-real-estate-CDOs-prior-to-the-2008-meltdown.

Those finance types, they have to keep with their creativity. Some of these are PhD physicists who ought to know better.

Remarks: Modified: 11/29/2017

11/29/2017 --

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Oops abound

No post here does not mean that there is not an interest. I see 'oops' all of the time. Some of these almost make me want to write something; it is certain that the urge is there.

So, this week, I read a WSJ op-ed. We can look it up. They have a guy who writes about cars on a regular basis.

This time? He had a mea culpa. I was surprised, too, but really had thought this in the back of my mind. Some dude parks his Mercedes, for a few days, at an airport. He goes off. It was not that long, less than a week.

Heck, I do that many times. Leaving my car at a hotel (park and fly sort of thing) while I jet off somewhere. My car has always been ready when I returned. Except, last year, in the spring, some ant, in the flying stage, got settled in the door's insulation (driver's side). I did not see this. So, plenty of the burgers flew off when I hit the Interstate. But, then I noticed these little things. And, sure, enough, they had established a colony. A quick trip to the car wash took care of most of this. Otherwise, I just picked them off as I saw then for awhile. Eventually, no ants.

This dude? Dead car. Could not open the door. Why? Battery drained by the electronics put in by silly valley. What gives?

Yes, silly valley? But, auto engineers are supposed to have their feet on the ground, on the tires. Features that are not really necessary.

I'll get back to this. But, it does show how we have taken several wrong turns. Silly valley. Say that a lot. Source of oops. Want me to do a litany?

Remarks: Modified: 09/19/2017

09/19/2017 --

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Ten years

Ten years ago, I started this blog one month after I started the truth engineering blog. What precipitated this blog was the 'potemkin' even of the 787 project. With hoopla, a plane was rolled out and touted as being ready to fly. However, the test flight started about two years later.

Why would I have cared? I was watching a local subcontractor who had, formerly, been a Boeing site. The main notion was to have sections that were complete and joined together in Seattle (or wherever the final assembly was to be done). And, arrival of the pieces and first flight was supposed to be a matter of day. Nice concept. It eventually worked out.

But, up-front mouthing off got in the way of engineering. For a long time, this went on. Once the source of the issue was removed and an engineer took over. The program made progress and got into the sky.

And so, that was the end of that, right? Well, for the most part, downstream glitches popped up, but that is normal (out to be expected). The press (harpies) seems to not understand undecidability (which applies to any decision process, not just logic).

In fact, look at the idiots doing business press. They (and investors) want management to forecast to the dime future monetary concerns. What? These are smart folk being the dumbest ones on the planet. Guess what? As the 787 issues were resolved, the financial problems came to fore. Oh Lord.

Myself? I felt like Rip Van Winkle as I had not really paid close attention (for many reasons). So, there are enough posts here that lay out the issues. And, these are not resolved. The Fed (another blog that started later) brought their largess to bear, leaving themselves with a load of toxic crap that still has not been handled.

How to do this? We sure would like to watch this unfold. Also, big Ben tried to taper. That caused a tantrum. Investors? To me, it's like kids in a candy store. Where can we get a mature economy defined?

Given that people err, the 7'oops7 name stuck. Anything complicated has associated error. Business likes to talk risk management. Oh yes, those guys were talking in the 2007/8 timeframe that we would never have another serious downturn. Oh sure, everyone has forgotten? Well, guess what happened soon after that type of bragging.

Yet, there were not perps. None. Fortunately, the press gave us some snapshots of the rogues at a table. They were cowering before Congress, looking for assistance.

In any case, this graphic shows Wikipedia edits starting in 2005. The blogs started in 2007. And, that activity (requiring lots of research) took time. Then, later, the notion of re-looking at American history came to fore, with the added framework of real people who were here through it all. That, folks, needs attention.

To see specifics, go to this post on truth engineering (Ten years).

Remarks: Modified: 05/13/2017

05/13/2017 --