Confoundedness (Poll 7)

Poll completion: 08/02/09

--- original post ---

It's time for another poll. Gosh, the last one was September. This shows that I believed in the process progression as we were told by many statements and was not one of the naysayers.

Boeing seems to be exhibiting confoundedness. So people ought not beat on them; it would be like an ER doctor berating a patient even though whatever is ailing the patient was the result of the person's own choice. No, we need to understand the causes and fix things up.

In short, was Boeing biting off more than one can chew, hoping that subcontractors could magically handle what might be intractable problems, dissing their own employees to run after new partners (the old middle-aged syndrome), and much more?

Much of this has been discussed here, will continue to be discussed here, and can serve as a very interesting lesson of what was wrought with the ending of the 20th century. That is, the 21st century will belong to the workers not to the fat cats (in engineering, it's the negative influences coming out of GE and Welch's legacy that got in the way).

Yes, that comment is a tie back into the economic side of engineering.

Why Boeing allowed themselves to maximize the confounding of factors is anyone's guess. Relaxing along all decision axes is very troublesome in safe environments. To do so when risk is not entirely understood (yes, you guys - Jim M, Scott C, et al - there were people arguing way back about not going whole hog (by what, was the necessity?) after a dream) can have very undesirable consequences.

Lessons learned will abound.

Disclaimer:
Usual poll etiquette assumed; polls are oriented toward information and not mis / dis-information.
- A casual user cannot double vote on any poll. But, there is no guard against intentional duplicate votes by those who know how.
- There is no consistency checking between polls.
- There is no meta-information about who votes or why.
- There is no current correlation between the polls, however the 'role' poll allows some indication of interest.

Remarks:

12/31/2013 -- A popular post in both 2012 and 2013. Ah, how many ways to we confound things? Do you not think that queuing up packages, at the last moment, for deliver somehow would not work (as in, expectations being way out of whack?)?

08/13/2011 -- Added completion; see top of post.

01/19/2011 -- Update1 and Update2. The focus now will be mostly the idiots of economics/finance.

09/09/09 -- We'll need to look at UUUN, as a framework.

09/02/2009 -- Let's face it, folks, undecidability needs to be discussed and adopted in any complex situational setting, especially if computers are involved. Only hubris pushes us to make loud exclamations about what we're going to do in the future.

07/23/2009 -- There have been several critical articles. Here are a couple, from down under, that illustrate the mood swing.

• Is the 787 Dreamliner fiasco more about toxic corporate cultures than a flawed design?
• The 787 Calamity: Lies and evasions continue

Gosh, wonder if Boeing would like to take back 07/08/07 and start over. Yet, there are five issues ought to be addressed. Remember, the underdetermined state is more common than we would like to admit.
Modified: 12/31/2013

Sixth poll series

Note: Poll completion.
The first five polls have been complete for some time; this blog has been taking a greater look at financial engineering than at product engineering; but, recent developments suggest that there ought to be a better balance and that another poll might be in order.

There are several questions to raise this time around.

• Is the 787 program too scattered to be effective?
• Is the IAM strike convenient to the 787 program?
• When will the 787 deliver?
• Will delays cause reversal of 787 orders?

One wonders why there are arguments for the process when the product has not been tested fully; does not that seem backward? The IAM's beefs (who are more doers than not) deal with the future as it is represented by 787 decisions; is it a convenient strike for Boeing (Bell's attitude seems to suggest so)? The delivery date has to be largely unknown; the product still needs to run through its ropes; is it wrong to ponder failure of this program? Flightglobal asked, in a poll, whether 1000 sold would occur before first delivery; well, what are the chances of retractions of orders?

Lessons learned: we'll have to attempt this at some time.
Remember to support bet2give; their poll is Test flight in 2008. See the list of Flightglobal polls related to the 787; the latest asks about the IAM strike (53% agreeing with the strike).

Disclaimer:
Usual poll etiquette assumed; polls are oriented toward information and not mis / dis-information.
- A casual user cannot double vote on any poll. But, there is no guard against intentional duplicate votes by those who know how.
- There is no consistency checking between polls.
- There is no meta-information about who votes or why.
- There is no current correlation between the polls, however the 'role' poll allows some indication of interest.

Remarks:

01/20/2013 -- Change link for bet2give.

Modified: 01/20/2013

New polls

These are again under consideration (Polls, Poll completions).

However, in the meantime, support bet2give.

• Current: Test flight in 2008
• Priors: 787 will test flight in Q2 2008, 787 in 2008, 787 on time

Flightglobal polls.

• Has Boeing finally got the 787 programme under control? Apr 11 08 (2228), Yes 23%, No 77%
• Will further 787 delays push customers to the A350 XWB? Mar 28 08 (2422), Yes 58%, No 42%
• Can Boeing still deliver the first 787 next May? Sep 04 07 (2797), Yes 27%, No 73%
• Will the Boeing 787 stick to its certification schedule? Jul 13 07 (2129), Yes 63%, No 37%

As an aside, the July 13, 2007 poll shows the lingering exuberance of the 7/8/7 affair, plus the several years of talking up the program. The April 11, 2008 poll says something about the glow's difficulty of recovery.

Modified: 01/20/2013

Fifth poll series

Note: Poll completion.

The first four polls are complete. There have been many announcements of late, so another poll might be in order.

There are two questions to raise this time:

• When will the 787 fly?
• Will Boeing deliver the 787?

The first question considers that first flight may be later than we've been led to believe. Why? Were we told that the empty shell rolled out last year was months away from flight? What might be known now that is not being disclosed?

The second question, hopefully, is unnecessary, yet, at this point, obtaining opinions about the matter may be interesting. Why opinions? As we are outside and are only dealing with information released by Boeing, what facts do we have to go by that we can believe? And, this question has been asked in other forums.

Disclaimer:

Usual poll etiquette assumed; polls are oriented toward information and not mis / dis-information.
- A casual user cannot double vote on any poll. But, there is no guard against intentional duplicate votes by those who know how.
- There is no consistency checking between polls.
- There is no meta-information about who votes or why.
- There is no current correlation between the polls, however the 'role' poll allows some indication of interest.

Modified: 05/13/2008

2008 Q2 or not

bet2give's stock about whether or not the 787 will test flight in Q2 2008 took a drop. Both the flightblogger and the Seattle P-I report possible delays.

It's interesting that the 4th Poll here showed that 79% of the 34 voting saw delivery to be after May of 2009 with a good 50% looking at the fall of 2009.

Remarks:

01/20/2013 -- Change link for bet2give.

12/30/2008 -- See 5th and 6th Polls. Also, will the 787 test flight in Q2 2009?

Modified: 01/20/2013

Fourth poll series

Note: Poll completion.

Announcements:

- You can support your favorite charity by using bet2give (787 Q2 fly, 787 in 2008 closed, 787 on time closed).

The poll:

The first, second, and third polls are completed. This fourth poll series looks at upcoming Boeing 787 milestones and asks the most probable date for their accomplishment.

- In your estimation, '787 power on' will be before Valentine's Day (Feb), Easter (March), Mother's Day (May), Labor Day (Sept). All are 2008 dates.
- In your estimation, '787 first flight' will be before May Day, Bastille Day (July), Halloween (Oct), Easter 2009 (April). The first three dates are 2008.
- In your estimation, '787 first delivery' will be before Christmas 2008 (Dec), Nowruz 2009 (March), Red Nose Day 2009 (June), Fiscal Year 2010 (Oct, 2009).
- My role is with -- We won't be able to establish any correlations, however knowing who might be taking the polls might be of interest. We'll continue to have this part of a series.

Disclaimer:
Usual poll etiquette assumed; polls are oriented toward information and not mis / dis-information.
- A casual user cannot double vote on any poll. But, there is no guard against intentional duplicate votes by those who know how.
- There is no consistency checking between polls.
- There is no meta-information about who votes or why.
- There is no way to correlate between the polls, however the 'role' poll allows some indication of interest.

Modified: 01/20/2013

Poll or not

Note: 01/11/08, Fourth poll started.

-----

Time is passing, so things might get more interesting.

You can support your favorite charity by using bet2give (787 in 2008). Things seem to be going better than with the first poll (787 on time).

We'll look at other polls and reassess whether to have more here this year, (such as Will the 787 stick to its certification schedule?).

Prior polls: first , second, third

Modified: 01/20/2013

Third poll series

Note: Poll completion.
Announcements:

- You can support your favorite charity by using bet2give (787 in 2008).
- Also, flightblogger is back; we'll see what information comes from that source; the context will change due to the flightglobal connection.

The poll:

The first poll and second poll are completed. This third poll is a short one to start to get some feedback on opinions about when the 787 might be delivered.

- Based upon the current information that we can know, when will the 787 be delivered? -- We, outside of OEM, only have limited information with which to make a determination about this, however there are many rumors floating around that cover a spectrum: will things go forward nicely such that the product will deliver with only a minor delay (2009/10)? Or, are there more problematic issues that will be difficult to overcome (much later)?

- My role is with -- We won't be able to establish any correlations, however knowing who might be taking the polls might be of interest. We'll continue to have this part of a series.

Disclaimer:
Usual poll etiquette assumed; polls are oriented toward information and not mis / dis-information.
- A casual user cannot double vote on any poll. But, there is no guard against intentional duplicate votes by those who know how.
- There is no consistency checking between polls.
- There is no meta-information about who votes or why.
- There is no way to correlate between the polls, however the 'role' poll allows some indication of interest.

Modified: 01/20/2013

Second poll series

Note: Poll completion.

Announcement: You can support your favorite charity by using bet2give (787 on time).

With the first poll completed, this is a short-time poll so that we can get a couple iterations done by end of October (hopefully, getting useful information).

- I would fly on the 787 -- Let us know how much of a delay you would allow prior to flying the new technology (after its first delivery, of course, meaning post the test phase). This might help gauge the implied risk as seen by the flying public.

- First delivery (787) will be in -- We cannot know this except for a range that might be provided by the OEM. This is your assessment, not what you expect will be announced with the next month or so.

- My role is with -- We won't be able to establish any correlations, however knowing who might be taking the polls might be interesting. We'll continue to have this part of a series.

Disclaimer: Usual poll etiquette assumed; polls are oriented toward information and not mis/dis-information. A casual user cannot double vote on any poll. But, there is no guard against intentional duplicate votes by those who know how. There is no consistency checking between polls. There is no meta-information about who votes or why. There is no way to correlate between the polls, however the 'role' poll allows some indication of interest.

Modified: 01/20/2013

Concerning the polls

The polls are simple opinion samplings and are not scientific by any means. Usual poll etiquette is assumed (see Disclaimer below). First pass at polls is closed.

If there is an interest (as determined by comments), a more rigorous approach will be tried.

A summary of the vote about May 2008 (closes 9/27 8:22 AM): Date, Total (I think so, Praying for, Maybe not, Nope)

• 9/27/2007, 124 (25, 12, 19, 68)
  
• 9/23/2007, 122 (24, 12, 19, 67)
• 9/19/2007, 116 (23, 11, 17, 65)
  
• 9/15/2007, 100 (19, 9, 15, 57)
• 9/11/2007, 87 (16, 9, 12, 50)
• 9/9/2007, 75 (13, 8, 11, 43)
• 9/6/2007, 56 (6, 7, 10, 33)
  
• 9/5/2007, 47 (3, 5, 9, 27)
• 9/4/2007, 30 (3, 6, 6, 15)

A summary of the vote about First Flight will be before (closed 9/21 7:31 AM) : Date, Total (Nov 2007, Dec 2007, Jan 2008, Mid-2008)

• 9/21/2007, 108 (11, 17, 34, 46)
• 9/19/2007, 105 (11, 17, 33, 44)
  
• 9/15/2007, 89 (11, 14, 28, 36)
• 9/11/2007, 76 (10, 13, 24, 29)
• 9/9/2007, 63 (9, 7, 22, 25)
  
• 9/6/2007, 47 (6, 5, 16, 20)
  
• 9/5/2007, 38 (6, 5, 12, 15)
• 9/4/2007, 21 (6, 2, 8, 5)

A summary of the vote about My role is with (closes 10/31 5:54 AM) : Date, Total (an OEM, a Supplier, an Airline, other (just interested))

• 9/27/2007, 31 (3, 9, 2, 17)
• 9/23/2007, 30 (3, 9, 2, 16)
• 9/19/2007, 22 (3, 4, 1, 14)
  
• 9/15/2007, 7 (2, 1, 0, 4)

The 'role' poll is new; perhaps, those who voted before will return to update their role. Future poll combinations will include a 'role' poll.

One topic to discuss will be how many polls, of two-week durations and of this type, could there be the next few months to a year, or so, that would be interesting and, perhaps, useful.

Disclaimer: Usual poll etiquette assumed; polls are oriented toward information and not mis/dis-information. A casual user cannot double vote on any poll. But, there is no guard against intentional duplicate votes by those who know how. There is no consistency checking between polls. There is no meta-information about who votes or why. There is no way to correlate between the polls, however the 'role' poll allows some indication of interest.

Modified: 09/28/2007