Poll Completion 7

The Seventh Poll finished 07/28/2009.

For the theme of "Boeing's dilemma" there were 14 votes with multi-vote allowed for the following:

• Confounded beyond reasonable bounds 5 -- 35%
• Was led astray by Scott C 8 -- 57%
• Will magically pull this off 0 -- 0 %
  
• Ought to go back to the drawing board 4 -- 28%
  
• Can only succeed with good people (not subcontractors) 7 -- 50 %
  
• Needs a new CEO 12 -- 85%
  
• The Board was asleep 8 -- 57%
• 787 will fly before the end of 2010 3 -- 21%
  
• The 'dream' liner will meet cost expectations 0 -- 0 %
• The 'dream' liner will meet weight expectations 0 -- 0 %
• The 'dream' liner will meet fuel efficiency expectations 0 -- 0 %

Prior polls: First, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth.

...

Poll Completion 6

The Sixth Poll finished 10/01/2008.


Support bet2give: 787 will test flight in 2008.

Prior polls: First, second, third, fourth, fifth.

Remarks:

01/20/2013 -- See, will the 787 test flight in Q2 2009?

Modified: 01/20/2013

Poll completion 5

23 voters showed up for the 5th poll with most being of the flying public (38% of 18) or suppliers (31% of 18).

Most saw that first flight would be after 2008 (77% of 23) and that the 787 would be delivered (90% of 20)

Support bet2give: 787 will test flight in Q2 2008

Prior polls: First, second, third, fourth.

Remarks:

01/20/2013 -- Change link for bet2give.

12/30/2008 -- See, will the 787 test flight in Q2 2009?

05/13/2008 -- It's not a scientific poll, yet the numbers might be interesting.

• In September of 2007, most in the poll said that first flight would be after mid-2008
• In October of 2007, most in the poll said that delivery would be in 2009
• In November of 2007, most in the poll said that delivery would be in 2009
• In January of 2008, most in the poll said that first flight would be after October of 2008 and that delivery would be after October of 2009
• In April of 2008, most in the poll said that first flight would be in 2009

Participants have identified themselves as both Supplier and Airline.

Modified: 01/20/2013

Poll completion 4

38 voters showed up for the 4th poll with most being aficionados (58% of 31) or suppliers (25% of 31).

Most (79% of 34) saw delivery as being after May, 2009.

Prior polls: First, second, third.

Modified: 03/20/2008

Poll completion 3

Of the 20 voters in the third poll, most of whom were Suppliers (6, 54%) according to the Role poll, 13 (65%) indicated 2009 as the most likely delivery year. The next most likely year was 2010 (5, 25%).

A tongue-in-cheek 'Before the A350' got 1 vote.

Of those who did the Role poll, the next highest group were the flying afficionados (4, 33%).

Prior polls: First, second.

Modified: 01/11/2008

Poll completion 2

There were fewer votes than before due to a shorter polling period (two weeks) and, perhaps, the absence of flightblogger which was a natural place to leave pointers to the poll.

bet2give has updated its stock (from 787 on time to 787 in 2008).

We'll attempt to have more polls after a brief pause to catch up with all the changes.

Further discussion can follow several tracks, such as how we assess any type of truth (to be itemized).

Modified: 01/20/2013

Poll completion

The time for the first poll has elapsed allowing a pause for interpretation and comment. The former can only have an anecdotal nature; the latter might to lead toward further polls that will be of interest and of use.

The 'role' poll will be part of subsequent polls.

These polls started around the time that the flightblogger posts were dealing with unannounced problems. Many thought that these would be covered in a scheduled status report (9/5 - indeed the topics were addressed somewhat). Usual poll etiquette was assumed, so we expect that the intent was to provide an opinion and not disinformation.

The first poll (started before 9/5) dealt only with the May 2008 date. 'Will this date be met?' is a very reasonable question (otherwise, how does one smooth over issues related to rushing the job?). Evidently, those who voted (124) thought so.

• 37 (30% - for yes) with 87 (70% - for no) - see the third poll
  

The second poll (started before 9/5) dealt with the first flight (FF) date which was changed at the telecon. Polls 1 and 2 did not start at the same time, hence the difference in count. However, if FF is after the 2007 year-end, then delivery (functional, of course, and not just a show vehicle) in May 2008 would be a problem.

• 28 (26% - before end of year) 80 (74% - before mid-2008)
  

The third poll is of interest as all of the four groups were represented with the majority being observers.


Modified: 10/2/2007

Open and honest ...

Ethics training talks about this subject a lot. As we know, our world isn't just black and white; how the grays (and other colors) are handled speak a lot to the interests of truth engineering.

A quote from today's telecon (a paraphrase (flightblogger notes from 9/5/07, 787 Status teleconference (9/22/07, will be offline until further notice)), of course): "Tell the world exactly what's going on with the program. You won't know what you have to deal with until you have to deal with it. We'll get this airplane in the air, and we'll get to flight test."

First, there is no doubt about the seriousness of the effort and probably little doubt about the eventual outcome. How the eventuality will map to time has gripped our minds. Some postmortem analysis could be done now (if one has the time and energy). At some future point (probably not too far out), there definitely will be more data.

It's the journey and details thereof that seem to have everyone's attention (as it should). Yet, we on the outside can only surmise (isn't that a normal human endeavor). How 'exact' any report may be deals with several issues that will be discussed further as we go along.

Naturally, as on any journey, there is discovery, except perhaps when one is retracing steps in a cow pasture ad infinitum. Yet, the thing-in-itself way of the world would suggest that even something so mundane as that retracing could be considered new (think of Blake).

There was discussion that going through the processes that were defined in the abstract (a necessity, since they were before the fact) causes one to adjust. Perhaps, our wonder is that process seems to change in every way except as movement of the EIS (first delivery).

We'll stay with the polls and try to make them more objective. As of 6:30 EDT on 9/5/2007, of 43 votes on the EIS, 34 (78%) say that most likely (or stronger) that there will be a slide. It might be interesting to ask how far the slide is expected. Only 3 are positive definite (6 are wishing, as most of us are, that things work).

Expect more polls as we go along. Hopefully, they'll contribute to the discussion.

Remarks:

01/27/2009 -- At the time of this post, engineering was the main focus. Then, other areas become of interest due to overlaps in the problems: map-territory, computation and being, and much more. There will be more integrating posts to bring some cohesion, such as leveraging and fiction.

Modified: 01/27/2009