Monday, November 30, 2009

Our basis

Every so often, there will be a post that can relate across the blogs. The subject of this post is an example, as was the train (7oops7, trutheng, fedaerated).

As a reminder, the following list the motivations for the blogs.
  • Truth engineering - the modern conundrums brought by success applying the artificial methods are wide and deep. Of course, this is debatable as many viewpoints attempt to cover these themselves. Yet, none seem sufficient, except that may be due to the variability inherent in the human. One role for computation will be augmentation, or filling in where we fail (or just don't want to perform) due to either complication or difficulty. It's not laziness, folks, rather many times reluctance is insightful. Watson, of IBM, suggested (paraphrase) that he looked for improvements to alleviate tasks that were repetitious and boring. That is, the 'necessity as the mother of invention' moral applies here. Yet, any accumulation of innovation has side-effects. These appear to have an interminable source. Computation exacerbates the problem due to the speed of change and the vastness of the domain (the ever-growing cloud, for example).
  • 7oops7 - any endeavor ('oops) requires talent and resources in a continual stream (loops), yet managing side-effects (oops) is key. Some call this risk management. Turns out that finance and engineering have similar traits in this matter, though the latter has more of a claim for invoking science. That is, engineering does have a test bed framework that is more real than anything that we've seen possible with finance. But, failures can still lurk.
  • FEDaerated - our current situation has a basis that is flimsy, for several reasons. Mind you, the flimsiness is not inherent, rather it deals with understanding the issues that truth Engineering tries to address. Unfortunately, wizards (yes, quants, I mean you, in part) run the necessary realms with little oversight. Of course, there is always the blustering of those with top-down power; however, what bottom-up, or middle-out, considerations do we need to address to resolve some of the issues. Not easy to say.
Each blog is to provide a different perspective on a matter so as to fill in a more thorough discussion. That is the hope.


08/03/2011 -- The relationship to economics is important.

Modified: 08/03/2011

Friday, November 20, 2009

Our trust

Well, 'our' in this sense is the collection of those dependent upon an economy that works which is, essentially, we, the taxpayers, and, in particular, US taxpayers.

What is 'trust' in this sense? We'll have to go into that further, but, whatever it is, its value is worth much less now than before.

In fact, we've been cast to the proverbial winds by those upon whom we placed the trust (it seems that either of the major political parties is as bad as the other). The mania of the train notwithstanding, things are not looking better except for those whose giant pockets are filled by the mechanisms of finance.

The big oops of the past year, actually two years, are now behind us enough to bear some scrutiny and opinion.

For instance, consider what Krugman (thanks to CalculatedRisk for the notice) wrote yesterday in the NY Times about the AIG fiascos. Squander? Yes, indeed. Comments found at the sites are worth the read.

Along the same note, TechTicker mentions Brad DeLong's blog remarks about the issues (will need to look further at this), such as saying that there is more than zero chance of a Depression (out of bullets).

By the way, and speaking of the political parties, we ought to have some serious constraint on term limits (let's say 8 years, however that would be subject to some debate). We need to refresh the blood, continually. Too, remove the influence of those paid meddlers (lobby-ers), and we would all be better off.


04/16/2010 -- Rotten to the core. Does not have to be!!

11/30/2009 -- From 'Our basis' can grow a whole bunch.

Modified: 04/16/2010

Friday, November 6, 2009

The train

There are all sorts of uses for 'train' as a metaphor, the little train that could being one example.

One use denotes the current choice for an individual investor. That is, do we get into, or stay out of, equities, given that the markets are up (as evidenced with a DOW over 10,000)?

Well, in this case, one has to ask, is there such a train? Or, are we where the suckers finally bite just before another crash?

Well, it's hard to say. Some argue that the fundamentals point to the current rally as being a bearish type. That is, not much behind it of a substantial nature. One fact that pops up now and then is that those in the know are selling now whereas back in March they were buying.

This is a typical choice point for Main Street folk as the Wall Street folk show off their gains (some of which are ill-begotten) and make claims for the future.

The story needs to be told is that no one has to board this play train, assuming that it exists. What we have is basically a chimera built upon the sand of casino capitalism. Oh sure, some will continue to benefit; those are the ones who control the game and who are guaranteed their take. Many more will lose.

If we go back to the original principle for using the equity form of capital, we can see that the gaming has been allowed that is unnecessary. There are methods of investing that do not partake of the type of mania that is being sold.

Where this dilemma relates to oops is this, those who come in late, like now, will lose their shirts, most likely. There is no reason to buy in; not doing so will not be anything to rue later.

So, how to describe the issues so that the choices are clear? That is one task.


08/01/2013 -- Ben cannot unwind or taper downhe has too many Doves. We'll have to get back to the king thing (yes, the divine rights of the CEO, new royalty, in other words) and dampening of these types by a new outlook (Magna-Carta'√≠sh).

03/05/2013 -- Ben reigns, but the savers' faces are bruised from his slapping.

10/25/2010 -- Capitalism, as known now, requires an endless supply of suckers.

01/27/2010 -- It's really ca-pital-sino.

11/20/2009 -- Societe Generale is getting negative?

11/08/2009 -- The gigantic chimera needs proper attention.

11/07/2009 -- Actually, there is a train, or, at least, we can use the train metaphor to discuss the economy's purpose and how finance has evolved into a problem (in medical parlance, not unlike a cancer) within that purpose. The particular train being touted now, the play train, is only for those in the game, and we see how they are rolling in the dough (and, bonus time is approaching).

Modified: 08/01/2013