Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Tranche or not

Earlier posts considered whether we are putting too much trust in mathematics and the related computation (issues of quasi-empiricism) and in processes based upon those two. There were allusions to problems that come out of abstraction as it pulls one away from substance toward what are 'bubbles' (a bane of modern existence). That is, having more substance can be thought of as equivalent to being more 'real' (opening up a door here).

One problem to understand and to control is application of the computational to objects-in-themselves (those who want to knock me as Kantian may consider their understanding of tribalism on intellect). On the computer, it is easy to reboot and to start over. Simulated errors and faults (on the computer) have no consequences in the world.

Yet, we cannot do similarly, that is reverse time or consequences, in the real world except for limited types of things.

Simulation has brought about troublesome thinking especially in so far as success there makes it appear to be 'okay' that one takes simulated data and acts as if it is real. It used to be that a prime counsel, in defining and using numeric processes related to complicated natural situations, was to not confuse the observed (measured in the world) data with something that was generated by a model.

Of course, where one can occasionally calibrate some model against the world, such intra-computer work is of use (operationally sound).

In the sense of a new product, especially one like a plane, the vehicles that will fly and otherwise support testing would have more substance than sub-assemblies or those artifacts with which abstractionists like to be bothered, even though the sub-assemblies in themselves can be tested or that the artifacts are amenable to analysis. And, in the case of a simulator, flight data would support calibration, so to speak.

Looking at the 'tranche' logic of finance makes one wonder if project management (in so far as it partitions and assigns and then has the worries of earned value) can have a similar set of lurking failings. Ah, the tranche, a mechanism to extend ratings above what is actually supported by the underlying instruments.

There seems to be some analog between the tranche mis-thinking and planning versus status measuring that we'll explore further. It's easy to poke fun at the money crowd as there really is no measurable basis that has been agreed upon and that has lasted. Yet, that 'froth' and 'bubbles' come about indicates that there is a problem.

Project management is a little better if is deals with a product that substantially deals with matter (such as a plane). But, as we all know, computer system project management is still more an art than a science despite the best efforts of DOD (US) and Software Engineering Institute, though this work may help prototype the types of control systems that will be needed.


08/01/2013 -- Ben cannot unwind or taper downhe has too many Doves. We'll have to get back to the king thing (yes, the divine rights of the CEO, new royalty, in other words) and dampening of these types by a new outlook (Magna-Carta'√≠sh).

05/25/2011 -- Stinking realities, such as, lemons problem, dark pools, ... Oh, so much to look at! Does the idiocy have any limit?

04/03/2011 -- Need to look at some background. Too, tranche and trash.

01/01/2011 -- We have four last posts of December under our belt. Also, we lost our chance at setting things right.

11/02/2010 -- Two years later, the message is the same, except some changes have occurred. Of real note is that the jobless rate is high; out-housing really set up for that. Also, we need to re-look at that learned from the 'vons' guys, Ludwig and Friedrich. See Near Zero.

07/23/2009 -- After the bust and the rebound, toxic assets are still a problem due to tranche realities.

06/07/2009 -- Say what?

02/18/2009 -- We can look at why securities become toxic, almost by necessity.

01/27/2009 -- Lessons to be learned (as opposed to learnt), including, by necessity, Ponzi.

11/12/2008 -- Well, things fell apart fairly quickly, starting in September of 2008. By N0vember, there was general spooking. Starting in September, movements toward nationalization sped so fast that it was easy to forget that a Republican administration was still in the White House. Talk about rewarding hubris and moral hazardness!!!!

Modified: 08/01/2013

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