Today, a six-month slide was announced for the 787. This was anticipated in the 7oops7 poll (see poll disclaimer), at the flightglobal.com poll (Will the 787 stick to its certification schedule?) and at the bet2give (787 on time).
With the announcement was a disclaimer (Forward-Looking Information is Subject to Risk and Uncertainty) that pertains to the subject of this blog and to truth engineering (Effort and truth - written way before the announcement without access to any inside information).
We will need to revamp the polls and adjust our dialectic.
It can be frustrating to have a highly-detailed plan not converge, except, even the determination of convergence has to be done in retrospect. It's not that we must live looking in the rear-view mirror, but the metaphor is not far off (we're very myopic going forward, at least as far as detail is concerned - foresight cannot be 100%, yet it does exist). For some reason, the lessons behind the mirror metaphor (and there are plenty of morals related to the phenomenon, not 20-20, etc.) goes unlearned (perhaps, because of our understudied talents). All any of us really need to do is reflect back upon our life and the related progressions that we undergo and then try to apply this to the forward-looking situation. We cannot look forward too much but consider some aging person that you know as an example of this progression. As lifeforms, we grow; we peak; we decline. In the case of a program, it's the transition from the growing to the peak that is unknown. If a program is not a replay along any of the important axes, the whole thing has to be a learning experience (experiment, if you would). Well, as we've learned from school, time and repetition are important. Methinks that the notions we learn about problem solving can be somewhat contributive to the issue to boot. So many things to think about.
01/20/2013 -- Changed link for bet2give.
09/02/2009 -- Lets face it, folks, undecidability needs to be discussed and adopted in any complex situational setting, especially if computers are involved. Only hubris pushes us to make loud exclamations about what we're going to do in the future.